29/30 June CC Analysis

Hi all.

Apologies for lack of articles as of late, but here we are again. For a full analysis make sure to check out our podcast, which will be released on Tuesday.

NPL 1

So as we can see here Hakoah are still coming last. Losing 1st grade and Olympic winning 1st grade really hurt them, so now the next closest in the firing line is Marconi.

Marconi require a 100 point swing against Hakoah to ensure survival, Sharks require 75 points and Olympic and United both require 73.

As we can see it is a big ask for Hakoah, especially with the few amount of rounds left wearing thin.

NPL 2

WSW’s lead has really shortened over the last month, holding on by a measly 3 points. North Shore Mariners are really biting at their heels with Spirit not far behind.

Without looking at matchups, we can rule out Canterbury Bankstown from promotion mathematically, and probably Rams and St George as well.

Speaking of those 3, there is a massive mountain to climb with Canterbury Bankstown needing a huge swing to stay alive, and the same goes for the Rams.

St George on the other hand have a semi decent chance at survival only 20 points behind Rydalmere now.

NPL 3

Bankstown City have really dropped off, gaining 6 points out of a possible 63 over the last 3 rounds and find themselves in 3rd.

SD Raiders have coasted their way to the top of the standings with GRM not too far behind, but have a massive round against BUFC coming up who are also still in the mix for promotion.

We can mathematically eliminate Rage, WNSW Mariners and Parramatta from promotion at this stage.

Speaking of, Rage and WNSW are all but relegated to NPL 4 next year with both needing to pick up all but 72 points to survive, which we may see happen next week.

Parramatta can get at most 286 points, whilst Camden and Hawkesbury can get 307 and 335 respectively.

There are still quite a number of rounds to go in NPL 3, so it’s hard to speculate too far ahead, but the table will give teams a rough idea of how many points they need to be safe.

Inter for example need a 152 point swing to ensure safety.

NPL 4

So the other 4 clubs have already been eliminated from promotion contention at this stage.

A 77 point swing against Fraser will hand CCU promotion, whilst a 53 point swing against Flame will basically knock out the rest.

It’s a little harder to factor in thanks to the byes, but CCU is making my job easier by being so far in front.

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